When the term “El Niño” reappears in economic briefings, South African farmers experience a unique kind of dread. It occurred in 2023 and 2024, and the ensuing drought had an impact. The pattern has now been confirmed by NOAA, and the timing—arriving just as the nation’s summer rainfall season is about to begin—is difficult to ignore.
On June 11, NOAA’s National Weather Service issued an El Niño Advisory, stating that the equatorial Pacific’s sea surface temperatures had risen to the point where the change was formally recognized. According to forecasters, there is a 63% chance that this event will turn out to be “very strong,” which means that temperatures in the area under observation will rise by more than 2 degrees Celsius. The World Meteorological Organization, in particular, isn’t thrilled with the term “super El Niño.” This illustrates how cautious scientists are even when the data appears concerning.
Because El Niño does not punish everyone equally, it is difficult to write about and likely difficult to prepare for. It has the ability to dry out one continent while flooding another. According to University of Maryland climate scientist Weston Anderson, there isn’t a single set of effects because the phenomenon affects such a wide range of geographical areas. Particularly in southern Africa, drought—the kind that penetrates the soil and persists for a season or two—is a recurring pattern.
Investec’s chief economist, Annabel Bishop, has been keeping a close eye on this, and her analysis carries a certain amount of unease. In fact, agriculture in South Africa had been prospering. The country’s GDP grew by 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2026 as a result of farming and earlier La Niña conditions that improved soil moisture. That’s what makes this El Niño a little more painful. At last, the industry was taking a break.
Bishop is concerned about timing. The months of November through January, when the forecast is most intense, are nearly precisely when South African farmers need consistent rainfall for recently planted crops. The most significant staple in the nation, maize, is particularly vulnerable. This type of overlap causes a global weather pattern to become a highly localized issue.
Bishop’s own statistics point to a slower-moving crisis, despite the temptation to assume that any El Niño will result in an immediate crisis. According to her, soil moisture should persist through the second and third quarters of 2026, indicating that the actual pressure point will occur closer to the following planting season. She predicts that food inflation will remain largely under control for the majority of this year. In 2027, things start to change. Due in large part to the expectation that maize prices will rise as cereal inflation shifts from deflation to a real driver of cost increases, Investec has already raised its CPI inflation forecast for that year from 3.3 to 3.7 percent.
Though Bishop is cautious not to exaggerate it, history provides a sobering point of reference here. In the past, severe El Niño events have caused multi-year droughts in South Africa, resulting in double-digit food inflation. Bishop herself notes that the forecast is fluid, with some models predicting that the pattern will weaken by the second quarter of 2027. It is still genuinely uncertain whether this event will reach that scale.
For now, it’s just a sort of vigilant waiting. The same satellite imagery of warming Pacific waters is being examined by farmers, economists, and policymakers in an attempt to determine how directly this will result in a dry summer in South Africa. It doesn’t seem like anyone wants to raise the alarm too early. However, no one is discounting it either.
