Nick Castellanos’ return to the conversation around Kauffman Stadium has an almost poetic quality. If you watched baseball at all in August 2020, you undoubtedly recall the scene: the empty seats, the strange live broadcast apology, and Castellanos’ home run that simultaneously made everything funnier and stranger. It was just plain ridiculous baseball. The kind of thing that, even in cases where the stadium itself was prohibited from hosting spectators, leaves a lasting impression.
Years later, Castellanos is now available, essentially for minimum wage rather than $100 million, and the Kansas City Royals are reportedly among the teams keeping an eye on him. On paper, it makes some sense. In the outfield, the Royals require right-handed pop. Castellanos is a right-handed hitter with a track record of home runs. The math appears to be fairly easy. However, the more you consider his current position as a player, the more complex it becomes.
The Philadelphia Phillies reportedly made it clear that he would not have a locker during Spring Training, essentially showing him the door this offseason. That’s a direct message following a $100 million, five-year commitment. Castellanos hit 82 home runs in his four seasons with Philadelphia, which is respectable on the surface, but his total fWAR was only 0.7 over 602 games. That’s a disappointing return for that amount of money, and the Phillies organization seemed to quietly accept that. With a.300 wOBA, 17 home runs, and a -0.6 fWAR—the lowest of his career—last season in particular appeared to be difficult. His Statcast results were below the 40th percentile in categories like barrel rate and exit velocity. That’s concerning for a hitter whose bat has always been his whole value proposition.
It’s possible that a player who turns 34 in March is just experiencing the normal aging curve. From 2017 to 2022, Castellanos had a truly dangerous hitting style.286 with 142 home runs over a six-year period and landing that big contract with the Phillies. That was the actual version. However, the player who hit.230 away from Citizens Bank Ballpark last year, who was benched again the very next game after allegedly bringing a beer into the dugout after being pulled for a defensive substitution, raises issues that are difficult to ignore.
There has always been a problem with the defense, and it has gotten worse. Castellanos has recorded some of the most concerning outfield statistics in the game over the last four seasons, including minus-41 defensive runs saved and minus-45 Statcast Fielding Run Value in right field. These aren’t erratic one-year declines. That trend line is obviously pointing in a single direction. When evaluating him, a team must be realistic about what they’re getting: a designated hitter wearing an uncomfortable outfielder’s glove.
However, Kansas City has a strong case at the appropriate cost. A right-handed bat available close to the league minimum is a different calculation than a $20 million commitment, and the Royals’ outfield from the previous season was anything but inspiring. There is a version of this that doesn’t hurt the Royals if they use him carefully, such as against lefties, in a platoon role, and only in circumstances where his defensive exposure is manageable.
In all honesty, though, Castellanos probably doesn’t make much of an impact for a team that truly wants to make the playoffs. Last season, his on-base percentage was.294. An outfielder who can’t field his position and seldom reaches base isn’t a needle-mover, but you can conceal some things in a lineup. Every time he enters the left-field corner at Kauffman, he’s a nostalgic name, a bargain bin gamble, and perhaps an entertaining talking point. It’s genuinely unclear if that’s worth anything more than that.
