When the forecast begins to use terms like “amber” and “mid-thirties” in the same sentence as June, a certain kind of incredulity descends upon England. On Friday, the Met Office issued an extreme heat warning for parts of south Wales as well as the southwest, southeast, and east of England. Forecasters are fairly direct about what’s in store: widespread effects on people, infrastructure, and the routine of everyday life. It runs from early Monday through the end of Tuesday.
In one briefing, meteorologist Max Deakin made it clear that the south might see low, even mid-thirties temperatures by next week. It’s the kind of statement that seems almost casual until you consider that June is still here, a month that Britain more frequently associates with erratic drizzle than heat that lasts past dusk. Greg Wolverson, the deputy chief forecaster, added that the heat that had been building over the weekend would spread and become more intense early next week, with humidity making it feel more intimate and uncomfortable than just warm.
Nowadays, the phrase “tropical nights” is also used, though it still seems a little strange in a British setting. In certain urban areas, where concrete and glass retain the day’s heat long after the sun has set, these are nights when temperatures don’t fall below 20C. Anyone who has attempted to sleep in a London apartment without air conditioning during a heatwave will understand the unique suffering this suggests.
The layering of risk is what distinguishes this spell from a typical hot weekend. In addition to yellow alerts extending into the Midlands, the UK Health Security Agency has issued amber alerts throughout the east, southeast, and southwest. These are warnings, not just forecasts, directed directly at hospitals, assisted living facilities, and their administrators, some of which may see internal temperatures rise above safe thresholds for clinical care. The majority of the risk is borne by older residents and those with pre-existing medical conditions, though the organization is cautious to point out that younger residents are also not completely immune.
Along the coastlines, a more subdued threat is also developing. During a heatwave, it is almost instinctive for more people to visit lakes, rivers, and beaches. However, sea temperatures haven’t yet caught up with the air, and Samantha Hughes of the RNLI has been advising swimmers to keep in mind the fundamentals: panic is frequently a more dangerous reaction than the cold itself, and cold water shock is real, even in July sunshine. Instead of fighting the water, she says, one should float to survive.
All of this is not taking place in a vacuum. Western Europe is facing its own heat dome, a persistent region of high pressure that covers the continent like a lid and traps warm air. By Sunday, Paris might surpass 40°C, endangering a record that hasn’t been set since 1947. In a way, the heat in Britain is merely the tip of a bigger system that is moving northward.
It’s important to keep in mind that Kew Gardens reached a record-breaking 35.1C in May of this year. Even the Met Office appears hesitant to make a firm prediction about whether this will become the new pattern or just an exceptionally hot period. The current June record, which was set in 1976, is 35.6C. It may be close to next week. Perhaps it won’t. In any case, the discussion about how the nation handles heat like this seems far from over.
