The sky can’t decide what it wants to be at one point, usually in the middle of the afternoon in Broken Hill. That’s precisely what Thursday is doing. The temperature is 14°C at 4 p.m. local time, with a light wind coming in from the northwest, humidity at 81%, and a flat, gray cloud ceiling. This type of weather seems a little out of place for a town known for its red dirt and sun-baked silence, situated deep in the far west of New South Wales. And yet, here it is.
At 4:18 p.m. AEST on Thursday, the Bureau of Meteorology released its forecast. The headline figure that grabs your attention is that there is a 95% chance of rain for the remainder of the evening. Rainfall of 6 to 20 millimeters is possible. That’s a significant range, broad enough to imply that the forecasters themselves don’t fully understand what the atmosphere will bring. A little chance of rain in the early evening, partly cloudy skies, and eventually lighter winds. It’s the type of forecast that you read twice—not because it’s concerning, but rather because it keeps changing.
The speed at which Broken Hill weather recalibrates is what makes it truly fascinating rather than just harsh. By Friday, there is only a 5% chance of rain. The highest temperature rises back to 17°C. light winds and partly overcast skies. The forecast for Saturday is similar, with clouds, a 5% chance of rain, and a cool but tolerable high of 16°C. The weekend becomes almost pleasant, or at least quiet, after a rainy Thursday nite. This kind of swing in 24 to 48 hours is not uncommon, but when you see it presented in a seven-day table, it still makes you think twice.
Sunday gets a little warmer, reaching 19°C with morning northeasterly breezes. The mulga scrub doesn’t exactly respond enthusiastically to a few degrees of warmth, but for anyone spending time outside, the difference between an 8°C morning and an afternoon at 19°C is noticeable. It seems as though the landscape accepts these changes. It’s interesting to note that the UV index rises to Moderate on Friday through Sunday. Sun protection is advised from approximately 10 a.m. until just before 3 p.m. even in August. even when there is cloud cover.
The dry spell of the week is short-lived. There is a 95% chance of rain on Monday, with 5 to 15 millimeters of precipitation possible. There is also a chance of an evening thunderstorm. Throughout the day, the winds change direction multiple times. In the morning, they swing northeasterly, and by dusk, they rotate northwesterly. Tuesday’s forecast calls for showers in the morning, a chance of thunderstorms, and southwesterly winds that will pick up to 15 to 25 km/h. Unlike Thursday’s opening act, these two days feel like a second system in motion.
It resets by Wednesday. 17°C, partly cloudy, 5% chance of rain. The pattern may indicate a more general change in the synoptic configuration throughout inland New South Wales this week, but it also seems like the kind of week Broken Hill quietly moves on with. Throughout the nite, the lows range from 5°C to 11°C, which is cold enough to warrant a jacket by dusk but not so cold that it stops you from doing anything.
The climate of Broken Hill is hot desert. Everyone who has been there or lived there is familiar with the summertime reputation, which includes the heat, dust, and flies. Outside of the area, fewer people consider the winter version. It’s milder—truly mild by inland standards—but it has its own distinct personality, with chilly mornings, a wind that finds holes in your clothes, and a sky that occasionally forgets it’s supposed to be blue. It has progressed beyond that this week, at least through Thursday nite and once more by Monday.
At the time of the Bureau’s forecast, Broken Hill was not under any active weather warnings. No severe wind events were reported, and no fires were rated. The storms that are predicted for Monday nite are worth keeping an eye on, but nothing here points to anything more than a rainy week that will eventually give way to something calmer on the other side, as it nearly always does out here.
