Watching a hurricane slowly move across the Pacific toward a group of islands where you can’t get away is very scary. Hawaii is beautiful and exposed because it is in the middle of the ocean. Every storm season, everyone holds their breath for at least a few days. This week, that storm is Fausto. Forecasters are getting more and more sure that it will pass just north of the main islands, but that word “just” does a lot of work in that sentence.
On Sunday morning, Hurricane Fausto was about 910 miles east of Hilo and moving west at 14 miles per hour. It was already weaker than when it first got here, dropping to a Category 2 storm with winds that never stopped near 100 mph before it crossed into the Central Pacific. The most recent forecast says that it will be north of the islands as a tropical storm on Tuesday and Wednesday. By that time, the winds should have slowed down to about 45 mph. It sounds like that could be done on paper. The ocean doesn’t always follow the forecast in real life.
Wind isn’t the most important thing right now. It’s the water. Fausto caused waves to start building on Sunday on the east-facing shores of the eastern islands. The waves were expected to move westward on Monday and Tuesday. These words from the National Hurricane Center about the surf should not be ignored: they mean that it could kill people. Along open coastlines, rip currents can quickly get even strong swimmers into serious trouble. Conditions are already changing on east-facing beaches, especially on the Big Island and Maui. As a safety measure, the Makapuu tidepool trailhead was closed on Oahu. This is the kind of small, practical decision that usually means officials are taking this seriously, even if the risk looks low at first glance.
This is a tough situation for travelers. No problems were reported with Hawaiian Airlines’ flights until Sunday. Only one cancellation was reported across the whole network. As of late Sunday night, there were no travel waivers and no coastal watches or warnings. In other words, everything seems fine. Monday and Tuesday flights into Honolulu or Maui should have a backup plan and keep an eye on airline alerts. Large and fast storms can change their paths overnight, and 50 miles can make the difference between a close call and a direct hit.
It’s important to note what’s different about Fausto this season. It’s the first hurricane of 2026 to hit the Central Pacific. It comes at the same time as Tropical Storm Genevieve, which is getting stronger in the Eastern Pacific and is expected to reach Category 4 strength. The Eastern Pacific has been busy, which makes sense since the sea surface temperatures there are higher than usual. Meteorologists are keeping a close eye on this pattern to see if it stays the same for the rest of hurricane season.
Hawaii’s emergency management agencies have been telling people for days that they should have enough food, water, and medicine to last at least 14 days. The Kauaʻi Island Utility Cooperative and Hawaiian Electric both said that Fausto’s conditions could still cause power outages, even if the storm moves north as planned. That is a sensible safety measure. Even the wind and rain from a storm passing offshore can damage power lines along the coast, and utility companies are usually honest about this when the risk is real.
Seeing how Hawaii’s government agencies have dealt with the events leading up to Fausto makes it seem like the islands are much better at handling the uncertainty that comes with tropical systems. The messages have been calm instead of scary: get ready, keep an eye on things, and stay out of the water. This is because of what people have learned from past storms. It’s possible that Fausto will pass by on Tuesday with only thick clouds and rough waves on the sides facing the wind. It’s also possible that the track doesn’t change much to the north and things get worse on land than expected.
In a way, that lack of certainty is the most honest thing that can be said about a hurricane that is still days away from getting close.
