Things about the Baker Mayfield contract are almost refreshing, not because they are clean or simple, but because they aren’t. There should be no spin or carefully worded press releases that make both sides sound reasonable. One disrespected quarterback, one line-drawn front office, and a 2025 season that didn’t really answer anything.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are said to have offered Mayfield a $100 million, two-year extension. That wasn’t seen as a lowball by most fans. A lot of analysts also didn’t. Mayfield, on the other hand, said no, saying he was worried about guaranteed money and wanted a deal that did not end in two years. He might have been right about the guarantees. They might have had a point about the length as well. Which is frustrating: it’s not clear which side is wrong.
What really makes the Baker Mayfield contract question hard is his performance history, which changes from season to season and seems to be done on purpose to be confusing. That was his first year in Tampa as offensive coordinator under Dave Canales. He threw for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns. On the surface, the numbers looked good, but the more in-depth metrics were not so clear. In most categories of efficiency, they were somewhere between 13th and 22nd. Good enough to begin with. Not good enough to pay a lot of money to build a franchise around.
Then 2024 came around, and Mayfield looked like a whole different quarterback. As Liam Coen took over as offensive coordinator, he threw for 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns, and 71.4% of his passes were completed, which was second or third best in the NFL. Nearly 30 points were scored every game by the Buccaneers. In a way, that season made Mayfield feel like he was ready to be a real franchise quarterback instead of just a bridge option to keep the team together.
What’s wrong is that 2025 took back almost everything that 2024 seemed to prove. Mayfield went backwards a lot after Coen left for Jacksonville and Josh Grizzard took over as the third offensive coordinator in three years. In the end, he threw for 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns, and a completion percentage of 63.2%, which ranked him 28th among quarterbacks who were eligible in that category. His worst advanced efficiency numbers were while he was in Tampa. He fell as low as 34th in total EPA. It was especially rough in the second half of the season, which is similar to how teams feel when they lose late in the season, which makes front offices wary of making long-term commitments.
It had something to do with injuries, as they always do with Mayfield. During last season, he had a sprained MCL and PCL at the same time, as well as a biceps contusion and a shoulder problem. It’s important to remember that this isn’t completely new ground. He played all season with a torn labrum in 2021 with the Browns, which may have cost him his future with the team. The pattern is real, and it’s clear that the Buccaneers are thinking about it. Another thing that Mayfield does that doesn’t help is that he runs by lowering his shoulder into a defender instead of sliding. That’s part of what makes him interesting to watch and hard to insure in the long term.
Mayfield is about to start his fourth season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He is in the last year of his current contract, and he will be working with Zach Robinson, who is a new offensive coordinator. Being in that situation is not fun for a quarterback who is 31 years old and has seen both the best and worst of his career. It’s still not clear if this season will make him the long-term answer in Tampa or show that the front office was right to be wary.
As I watch this happen, I get the sense that both sides made smart choices that led to an unfair outcome. The Buccaneers have seen enough bad play to know they should be careful. Mayfield saw enough of his own movie 2024 to know that he deserved better. Both points of view are valid. It’s likely that the 2026 season will decide it, and for a quarterback who wants to prove something, that might be just the thing he needs.
