If you want to win in a state that doesn’t want you, you have to be very humble in politics. The real kind, not the kind politicians use at town halls. The kind that makes a candidate step aside, shake hands with someone who isn’t even in their party, and call it strategy.
In Idaho, this happened recently when David Roth, the Democratic candidate for the Senate, dropped out of the race against Jim Risch, the Republican incumbent. Roth kept his words calm and personal in his statement, talking about family and impact. But the underlying message was clear: in a state that Trump won by more than 35 points in 2024, being called Democratic is less of a party identity and more of a ceiling.
This made room for Todd Achilles to run as an independent. He is a veteran of the Army and used to be a Democratic state legislator. Achilles has based his campaign on class instead of party, and his website rejects the left-right divide in favor of a top-versus-bottom one. It sounds like very old-fashioned language in 2026, but in Idaho, where Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat since 1974 (when Frank Church did), “almost old-fashioned” might be just what’s needed.
In plain English, Nathan Gonzales of Inside Elections said that in places where the national Democratic brand is already damaged enough, you need angry Republicans, and many of those voters still won’t vote for a real Democrat. The workaround is an independent who has the support of Democrats. There are flaws, and everyone knows it.
This same math was used in Nebraska in 2024, when independent Dan Osborn came closer than anyone thought to beating Republican Senator Deb Fischer, even though there wasn’t a Democrat officially running. He’s running again this time, and last week, the Democratic nominee in that race, Cindy Burbank, dropped out to help him. Things are starting to look like they fit together like a plan.
Montana is where things are going wrong with the plan. Alani Bankhead, a Democrat, has refused to drop out of the race before the August 10 deadline. If she did, independent Seth Bodnar would be able to run against former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme for the seat that retiring Republican Steve Daines is leaving open. The stakes are high; polls show that Bodnar is competitive with Alme one-on-one but far behind in a race with three other candidates.
The money trail is what really makes Montana interesting. A group called Progressive Vet PAC is said to have spent millions of dollars during the Democratic primary to support Bankhead. They did this because they thought she’d be more willing to step down if she won the nomination. She won. After that, she didn’t move. “I got more than 48,000 votes,” she told Montana Television Network. “Zero people voted for Bodnar.” Since then, the PAC has stopped spending money for her.
It’s hard not to notice how awkward that arrangement is. People who voted for Bankhead weren’t always choosing a fill-in candidate. It’s likely that some of them only wanted a Democrat to win. And Bankhead seems to really think she should stay in, which could be good or bad for her depending on how this goes.
South Dakota adds a new part. Julian Beaudion, the Democratic nominee who has the support of former President Joe Biden, also won’t drop out, even though he has been asked to do so so that independent Brian Bengs can run. Last month, he told a local news station, “We are not going anywhere.” It has a stubbornness that is either out of principle or not helpful, or maybe both.
The bigger question that Democrats are thinking about behind closed doors is who is responsible. It’s risky to back an independent who can change their caucus. No matter what, a party-line vote isn’t a given. Gonzales said the risk was clear and framed it as a choice: an independent who might help sometimes is better than a Republican who won’t help at all. It’s a low standard, but in places like Idaho and Montana, it might be the only one that matters.
Kansas has a slightly different way to get there. Pastor Adam Hamilton thought about running as an independent, but in the end he ran as a Democrat and said he was “independent-minded.” It’s a milder form of the same urge—to stay away from the brand without giving up on it completely.
In these Senate races in red states, there is less of a coordinated national strategy and more of a set of local experiments going on. Some are doing work. Some are going wrong. Some, like Montana, are still being talked about in real time, and the deadline in August is getting closer and closer.
